U.K. Begins Rwanda Deportations

Welcome to Foreign Policy’s Africa Brief.

The highlights this week: A rare cyclone hits Kenya and Tanzania, Togo accused of election-rigging, and Congo’s country music cowboys.

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The United Kingdom has begun detaining asylum-seekers for deportation to Rwanda following the passage of a highly divisive immigration bill last month.

The detentions began on May 1 in preparation for deportation flights to Kigali in the next few months. The U.K. Home Office has identified an initial cohort of 5,700 out of at least 35,000 people who could be sent to Rwanda. Last week, a failed asylum-seeker was paid 3,000 pounds (about $3,700) to voluntarily move to Rwanda.

Under the agreement, people seeking asylum who arrive in the U.K. via small boats crossing the English Channel would be flown to Rwanda to have their asylum claims processed there. If granted asylum, they would remain in Rwanda and could not return to the U.K. to seek asylum there.

The law compels British judges to consider Rwanda a “safe country” and gives ministers the power to ignore a U.K. Supreme Court ruling that Rwanda was unsafe and that sending refugees to Rwanda would breach international and domestic laws, due to the country’s poor human rights record under Rwandan President Paul Kagame.

The Supreme Court stressed that a ream of international treaties, including domestic British laws, protected refugees from the scheme. In 2018, at least a dozen Congolese refugees were shot dead by Rwandan police during a protest over food rations.

Britain’s National Audit Office, a public spending watchdog, estimated that it will cost the U.K. government 540 million pounds (about $669 million) to deport the first 300 migrants—nearly $2.23 million per person. The U.K. has already paid 240 million pounds (about $300 million) to Rwanda.

Not only has Kagame’s regime long had a questionable human rights record; the country is also now involved in a potential interstate war. Congolese President Félix Tshisekedi has accused Rwanda of funding March 23 Movement (M23) rebels operating in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, which Kigali denies. Congo blamed M23 for bomb attacks on two camps for displaced people in eastern Congo on Friday, which killed at least 12 people.

The U.S. government also blamed the Rwandan army and M23 rebels for the deadly bombing. “The United States strongly condemns the attack today from Rwanda Defense Forces (RDF) and M23 positions on the Mugunga camp” in eastern Congo, the U.S. State Department said in a statement. Kigali called the U.S. accusation “unjustified.”

The violence in eastern Congo has displaced about 7 million people. Tshisekedi has condemned a European Union deal with Rwanda to supply critical minerals, which Kinshasa says is being smuggled from Congo. “With the proceeds of these illicit sales, they will equip their armies and continue their ambitions in the Congo,” he said in February. Last year, Congolese Finance Minister Nicolas Kazadi said his country’s economy was losing $1 billion a year in minerals exports through Rwandan trafficking.

Burundi also accused Rwanda of being a “bad neighbor” and of backing the Burundian armed rebel group RED-Tabara that killed at least 20 people in an attack near the border with Congo in December.

Analysts consider the U.K.-Rwanda deal a “smokescreen” in an election year since the majority of Britain’s migrants are there legally. Asylum-seekers and refugees make up less than 20 percent of all migrants, and to support an aging population, Britain’s health and social infrastructure relies heavily on migrants, particularly young African and Asian workers. Up to last June, the top three countries for which health and social care work visas were issued were India (30,000), Nigeria (18,000) and Zimbabwe (17,000).

According to the European Council on Foreign Relations, an alternative policy of fast-tracking refugees and asylum-seekers to employment could have netted the U.K. 211 million pounds (about $265 million) annually for an economy in recession.

Monday, May 6, to Thursday, May 9: The U.S.-Africa Business Summit is held in Dallas.

Wednesday, May 8, to Tuesday, May 14: The New York African Film Festival showcases films from more than 30 African nations.

Thursday, May 9: Officials from the International Monetary Fund arrive in Nairobi for a review meant to unlock a $1 billion tranche of Kenya’s $4.43 billion funding program.

Tuesday, May 14, to Wednesday, May 15: The Invest in African Energy forum is held in Paris.

Wednesday, May 15, to Thursday, May 16: The German-African Energy Forum is held in Hamburg.

Chad elections. Chadians voted on Monday in a presidential election expected to secure military leader Mahamat Idriss Déby’s grip on power amid shaky alliances with France, the United Arab Emirates, and Russia. Chad’s stability is critical to its allies as it supports about 1.1 million refugees, particularly from neighboring Sudan. Chad is the first of four military regimes in the Sahel to hold an election, but the ballot was not democratic as analysts say any real opponents to the Déby dynasty have been barred from running.

U.S. troop redeployment in West Africa? Nigerian media widely reported over the weekend that U.S. officials are lobbying the country to host French and U.S. troops driven out of Francophone Sahel nations. In an open letter to Nigerian President Bola Tinubu, Nigeria’s northern governors objected to the establishment of a U.S. military base. The letter dated May 3 and emailed to several Nigerian news outlets said Western military operations aimed at combating terrorism in the Sahel region have been “quite unimpressive, if not a complete failure.” The governors argued that hosting foreign troops would hinder a focus on economic growth and worsen relations between Nigeria and its Francophone neighbors. On Tuesday, Nigeria’s federal government issued a statement that it was “not considering” a foreign military base in Nigeria.

Niger’s junta asked the United States to withdraw its 1,000 military personnel from the country last month after signing a defense pact with Russia to help fight Islamist insurgencies. Burkina Faso, Chad, and Mali have also expelled U.S. troops. Washington intends to maintain dialogue with Chad and Niger on keeping a presence. For the moment, in an unusual occurrence, U.S. and Russian soldiers are sharing the same air base in central Niger. Washington is seeking an alternative military base in West African coastal nations such as Benin, Ghana, and Ivory Coast, the Wall Street Journal reported in January.

Gen. Michael Langley, the head of U.S. Africa Command, met with Beninese President Patrice Talon on May 3 to discuss security cooperation, even though Talon faces scrutiny over democratic backsliding, rigged elections, and authoritarianism—much like the former leaders deposed in coup-hit Sahel nations. Ghana’s democracy is more robust and pro-American, but the country faces an election this year.

East Africa’s first-ever cyclone. Kenya and Tanzania have begun clean-up operations following the devastation caused by Hidaya, East Africa’s first-ever cyclone. “Hidaya is the first documented system to have reached tropical cyclone status in this part of the world,” said Clare Nullis, a spokesperson for the World Meteorological Organization. While common farther to the south in countries such as Mozambique, it is unusual in equatorial Africa.

A major blackout occurred across Tanzania on Saturday as Hidaya made landfall. More than 400 people have been killed and over 200,000 displaced following weeks of heavy rains and flooding in Burundi, Kenya, and Tanzania. The rising water levels and high winds have impacted thousands of refugees hosted in temporary camps in the three nations, according to the U.N. Refugee Agency. The disaster has been blamed in part on the effects of climate change but also on a lack of preparation and improper land use and construction.

Togo elections. President Faure Gnassingbé’s ruling party claims that it achieved a landslide victory in Togo’s April 29 legislative elections, according to provisional results released by the country’s election commission. The Union for the Republic party won 108 seats out of 113 in the National Assembly—results rejected by opposition members over concerns around rigged voter numbers. Turnout was as low as 33 percent in the capital of Lomé and up to 97 percent in the ruling party’s strongholds in the north. “What’s happening in Togo is akin to North Korea,” said Eric Dupuy, a spokesperson for the opposition National Alliance for Change.

Critics say the outcome paves the way for Gnassingbé to extend his family’s 57-year rule of the country. A divisive constitutional change reduced presidential powers and introduced a new role of “president of the council of ministers,” effectively a prime minister. The role has no term limits and is automatically assumed by the leader of the majority party in parliament. Gnassingbé could assume the role despite 19 years in office.

Nigeria wage increase. Nigeria raised the salaries of civil servants including police and military officers up to 35 percent in a bid to improve the country’s security. The pay increases are to be backdated to January. Opponents say the increases fall far below inflationary pressures with sharp rises in the prices of food, electricity, and fuel. The Nigerian naira’s currency devaluation means that the monthly minimum wage of 30,000 naira is worth just $19—about the cost of a two-person restaurant meal in Lagos.

EU-Egypt deal. Members of the European Parliament are preparing to take the European Commission to court over a 7.4 billion euro (about $8 million) aid package extended to Egypt in March aimed at stopping African migration. The deal is similar to others signed with Tunisia and Mauritania that pledged money and other incentives in return for guarding the countries’ borders against illegal migration and has been criticized for ignoring human rights concerns in recipient nations. “Throwing money at dictators is not migration policy,” one MEP said. “It will just keep the dictators in place for longer and make the problem bigger.”

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Congo’s country music. In the Republic, Victoria Audu reexamines the history of Congolese cowboys in the 1950s and ’60s, mainly young people from rural areas who sang together and bonded over a shared interest in Western films. “[T]heir heritage lives on in reimagined adaptations such as the band, Congo Cowboys,” Audu writes, a four-person band made up of South African and Congolese members that champions country music with African sounds.

Mauritius’s fragile democracy. In the Continent, Harry Booluck argues that Mauritius should not be viewed as one of the last stable democracies in Africa. Suppression of critical voices and harassment of political opponents mean elections in November could be the country’s worst, Booluck writes.