IEO horizon scanning evaluation: Bank response

Purpose and definition of horizon scanning at the Bank

Recommendation 1: Develop a common definition of horizon scanning as an activity distinct from business as usual work

Recommendation 2: Establish a shared purpose for horizon scanning and how it can support the Bank to achieve its mission across all areas of the organisation, including using it to identify opportunities as well as risks

The Bank agrees that a commonly adopted terminology that delineates horizon scanning from business as usual, eg around standard risk assessment activities, is required. The IEO report’s working definition is a good starting point: ‘Systematically exploring and understanding fundamental change, risks and opportunities that have the potential to reshape the challenges faced by the Bank in achieving its mission.’ Importantly, the intention of this approach is to go beyond business as usual. Externally this concept of horizon scanning if often referred to as ‘strategic foresight’.

The Bank agrees with the IEO’s definition and will adopt it in defining horizon scanning activity moving forward. The Bank recognises that horizon scanning can be helpful to identify both risks and opportunities which might otherwise not have been spotted, for policy but also for operational and organisational issues. For example, further work in this space could help set the strategy for the Bank. The IEO definition leaves open the time horizon implied. The Bank recognises that different parts of the organisation undertake horizon scanning over different time horizons to best meet their objectives and purposes and will encourage further work particularly at longer horizons going forward.

The Bank endorses establishing a shared purpose for horizon scanning across all areas of the organisation. Bringing operational and organisational areas in particular into horizon scanning projects will ensure that they are aligned with and can drive the Bank's wider strategic direction and help them to work closer with other areas of the Bank to understand future needs, challenges and opportunities. In response to the IEO evaluation, the Bank has already appointed a senior sponsor to champion horizon scanning work across the organisation.

Organisational model

Recommendation 4: Formulate and implement a vision of the desired operating model for horizon scanning

Recommendation 5: Improve co-ordination across business areas and policy / operational / organisational arms

Recommendation 9: Develop a horizon scanning cadre to share knowledge and improve collaboration across the Bank

The Bank welcomes the recommendations to create an effective organisational architecture to support horizon scanning and is committed to exploring and experimenting with different options around an operating model that increases coordination and captures synergies across the Bank. To this end, the Bank will set up a Horizon Scanning Working Group (HSWG) that not only champions horizon scanning across the organisation but actively develops and pursues a strategy to further its use. The group, including the efficiency and effectiveness of its set up, will be reviewed in early and late 2026.

Together with local experts, the group will prepare material around horizon scanning in specific projects to be used across the Bank, covering trend analysis and potentially extending to the development of scenarios. Broad qualitative long-term scenarios could be applicable to most areas of the Bank – whether on the policy, operational or organisational side – and could be adapted locally to specific contexts. Likewise, more bespoke scenarios may also be appropriate.

The group will work closely with local areas to facilitate the use of horizon scanning material, spread good practice and upskill staff across the Bank. Members would effectively train up a Bank-wide cadre of horizon scanners building on the current network of horizon scanning champions. By leveraging this community, the Bank can enhance co-ordination, improve strategic foresight, and drive innovation and professionalisation of horizon scanning across all its functions.

Horizon scanning tools and resources

Recommendation 3: Identify the horizon scanning tools and approaches the Bank can use to inform discussion and decision-making

Recommendation 6: Establish and maintain a central repository for all products, materials and resources

Recommendation 7: Increase engagement with external organisations to ensure their experiences, insights and challenge inform horizon scanning activities

Horizon scanning outside business as usual activity requires novel approaches and tools, including around qualitative narratives. The Bank welcomes exploration of these tools and recognises that new approaches increase diversity of thought. Tools that are often used in the context of horizon scanning and strategic foresight include, but are not limited to, trend and scenario analysis. Box B in the IEO report gives a helpful overview of the different techniques. Building on existing expertise, the Horizon Scanning Working Group will look to understand better best practice in the field, consulting with external experts, as necessary to support the Bank’s work.

The Bank welcomes the suggestion to create a central repository for core products, materials and resources linked to horizon scanning and strategic foresight, including leveraging analysis and expertise from across government and international organisations such as the International Monetary Fund and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The Horizon Scanning Working Group will set this up and maintain it, building on existing internal sites.

The Bank believes that in order to harness the benefits of horizon scanning activities, external engagement is key. The Bank already engages with external experts and market participants which are relevant to its horizon scanning efforts, and will look to utilise these as appropriate to support its work, including through disseminating insights. Experts should represent broad and diverse views, and be brought in at different stages of work, for example, to get initial ideas but importantly also to test and challenge later-stage work. As part of developing the strategy on horizon scanning, the Horizon Scanning Working Group will provide guidelines around engagement, with an expectation of being open where possible.

Embedding horizon scanning culture in the Bank

Recommendation 8: Ensure committees can effectively engage with horizon scanning through tailored facilitation techniques and sufficient time for discussion

Embracing horizon scanning and strategic foresight starts at the local level. This is pivotal for ensuring that these activities become embedded within the Bank’s culture. Local areas will be encouraged to actively participate in horizon scanning initiatives, to integrate horizon scanning into their decision-making processes, enhancing strategic foresight and contributing to the Bank’s overarching mission.

With regard to committees, the Bank endorses Recommendation 8, emphasising the importance of supporting committees to engage with horizon scanning through tailored facilitation techniques and sufficient time for discussion. In response to this recommendation, the Bank notes the need to embrace experimentation, including around the format of meetings as well as tools employed, differentiating horizon scanning sessions from business as usual. Committee discussions can be supported by local areas or by specific projects taken forward by the Horizon Scanning Working Group.